The latest IAS report, which reflects the largest one-month increase in the IAS360 HPI since July of 2005, follows a fractional gain in April. The index had previously fallen more than 19% from its high-water mark in June of 2007.
U.S. house prices are still down 10.5% year over year, but all four of the U.S. census regions reported positive numbers for May. In order of gains, the Northeast was up 3.2%, the Midwest 1.9%, the South 1.1%, and the West 0.9%. The South was the only census region down in April.
"Two months' worth of positive data hardly signals a turn in the national housing market," said Dave McCarthy, President and CEO of Integrated Asset Services, "but we have to be encouraged by what we're seeing in several important counties and neighborhoods."
In fact, the IAS360 HPI reported gains in May for nine of the nation's 10 largest metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs), a notable turnaround from just two months ago when Denver was the only region in the nation with positive performance. For its part, Denver added another 0.4% in May, while Boston and Chicago followed solid April numbers with increases of 3.7% and 1.5%, respectively. The gains in the West, meanwhile, were particularly apparent with San Francisco up 3.0%, Los Angeles 2.8%, and San Diego 1.2%. Only the Las Vegas housing market continued to slide with a drop of 0.9% for the month.
"We're seeing a mix shift in home sales and that's manifesting itself as increased pricing," said John Burns, CEO of John Burns Real Estate Consulting. "For a while, the bulk of homes sales were distressed properties in declining neighborhoods." Home affordability combined with tax credits have proven compelling. Sales are shifting back to more traditional submarkets and neighborhoods. That said, there is still a lot of downward pressure on pricing due to foreclosures and recent changes in the appraisal process. We aren't out of the woods yet."
"With all of the political and regulatory uncertainties combined with rising unemployment and foreclosure inventories, it's too soon to speculate that a housing recovery is really here," said McCarthy. Rumblings of a flood of properties could be about to hit the market, due to poorly performing Mortgage Backed Securities, bought by banks and mortgage investors.
The IAS360 House Price Index is a comprehensive housing index tracking monthly change in the median sales price of detached single-family residences across the U.S. The index, based on all arms-length transactions, tracks data of 15,000 neighborhoods, that roll up to report on the changes in 360 counties, nine census divisions, four regions, and the nation overall. The IAS360 House Price Index is delivered on a monthly basis.
Integrated Asset Services offers full service, end-to-end mortgage service solutions including valuation and data analytics. Its i-Series collateral valuation platform http://www.iasreo.com/iseries.html) delivers a comprehensive combination of collateral valuation services that individually offer distinct and critical data, and when combined, a complete view of market volatility, local expert opinions and subject value. The company's data analytics provide vital data on the U.S. residential housing market.
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